Myocarditis and Vaccines @GidMK Twitter Thread

Health Nerd
@GidMK
I think the vaccine/COVID myocarditis issue in kids really shows the difference between those reasonably weighing up costs and benefits and those who are either dishonest or not very good at epidemiology 1/n
9:54 PM · Jan 19, 2022·Twitter Web App
270
Retweets
36
Quote Tweets
1,304
Likes

Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
Replying to
@GidMK
2/n We know two things with a great deal of certainty for younger people:

1. myocarditis following vaccination is rare
2. myocarditis following COVID-19 is rare
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
3/n This is probably not a surprise, because myocarditis is rare in younger people regardless of the situation. Here’s a study that found an incidence of 2 cases per 100,000 kids each year
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Occurrence and Features of Childhood Myocarditis: A Nationwide Study in Finland
Epidemiology of myocarditis in childhood is largely unknown. Men are known to have a higher incidence of myocarditis than women in adults aged <50 years, but whether this is true by sex in pediatric…
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
4/n Now, the issue is, we aren’t quite sure which of these rare events (vaccine or COVID-induced myocarditis) is more common. Some studies say COVID, some indicate the vaccine (particularly Moderna)
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
5/n And, if we were totally incompetent, we might argue that, since some studies observe myocarditis at a slightly higher rate in younger people after vaccination, this means that the vaccine is causing harm

But that’s a very bad argument
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
6/n Why? Well, while myocarditis is the main serious issue identified in young people post-vaccine, COVID-19 causes any number of serious, harmful problems

Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
7/n Just look at the Nature Medicine paper that has sparked so much of this nonsense. Myocarditis in people <40 years is higher with Moderna than the virus!
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
8/n Except, look at pericarditis and arrythmias. Basically no risk from the vaccines, HUGE increased risk from the virus (the graphs are only for all ages, but from the supplement the virus increases the risk of arrythmias by >30x in under 40s)
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
9/n And those are just cardiac complications! If we take the gold standard of dividing hospitalizations by number of infections based on serology, COVID-19 causes hospitalization for about 1 in 1,000 children. WAY higher than the vaccine https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261282v2.full
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
9.5/n On top of this, we’ve got the risks from long COVID. One study found that 1 in 5 adolescents report anosmia 3 months after COVID infection (this may be inflated by various biases, but is still something to consider)
researchsquare.com
Long COVID – the physical and mental health of children and non-hospitalised young people 3 months…
Introduction: We describe post-COVID symptomatology in a national sample of 11-17-year-old children and young people (CYP) with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to test-negative controls…
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
10/n Now, it’s true that we don’t know what the marginal benefit of second/third doses is on reducing these higher risks from COVID vs the increased risk from some vaccines of myocarditis
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
11/n This is a complex question that almost certainly has a complex answer, and I can see why some people have recommended against boosters for teen boys in this context
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
12/n That being said, if someone presents only the risk of myocarditis for COVID-19 vs vaccines, it’s just a poorly-done piece of work that doesn’t address the issues we care about much, if at all
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
12h
13/n (It should be noted that this is NOT a criticism of the Nature Med paper, which didn’t actually make this claim because they seem to be quite good at epidemiology and weighing risks and benefits)
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
8h
14/n It’s been pointed out that I should’ve been more clear – yes, the primary risk is for young men aged 11-29 receiving their 2nd dose of mRNA vaccines, and this is where most of the complexity I alluded to above lies
Quote Tweet
Angry Cardiologist
@AngryCardio
· 8h
Replying to @GidMK
Good Lord—those facts need to be put front & center—not merely alluded to.

This was the reason I was so critical about the original publication. It appeared like purposeful obfuscation.

I believe that everyone ought to have COVID vaccination.
Health Nerd
@GidMK
·
8h
15/n Current evidence appears to indicate that the risk for younger children is negligible, and girls are also at a much lower risk at all ages https://cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm705152a1.htm

Writing about COVID-19

As well as building up a resource of information and analysis on COVID-19, we want to ensure that we pass on any tips about what can go wrong when writing about this subject: and how to get it right! If you have experience in writing about this area and feel you have advice that would help others, please contact us at: covid19editor@wfsj-briefing.org.

We’d also like to hear from you at that address if you would like to regularly contribute links to the site. If you just want to suggest links on an occasional basis, please send them to: covid19@wfsj-briefing.org.